صراط عشق صراط عشق
As Russia faces unprecedented sanctions on virtually all sectors of its economy, it may have to turn to a trusted ally with more than four decades of experience with Western embargoes, CNN says.
Until the Ukraine war, Iran was the most sanctioned country in the world, according to Castellum.Ai, which tracks sanctions. Russia now holds that record and the two countries are in what analysts call “a marriage of convenience” that is likely to grow stronger as the war in Ukraine escalates, the American broadcaster said.
“Common interests in helping the other evade sanctions are important to these dynamics in Russia-Iran relations,” said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Persian Gulf State Analytics in Washington DC.
Amid tit-for-tat air blockades between Moscow and the West last month, Russian transport minister Vitaly Savelyev said his country is “studying the case of Iran” to help it deal with sanctions on maintenance and spare parts. Iran still operates some planes purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ruptured its ties with the West.
“This bilateral relationship will likely grow stronger as the war in Ukraine rages on, especially if the Vienna talks fail to revive the JCPOA,” Cafiero added, referring to the 2015 deal. He noted that Iran’s experience will further push Tehran to make itself useful to the Kremlin.
After decades of Western economic constraints, the Islamic Republic has become a master of circumventing the illegal sanctions.
Can Russia follow Iran’s lead to circumvent Western sanctions? Some analysts say it already is.
The U.S., the G7 group of rich nations, and the European
Union have imposed a series of unprecedented sanctions on Russia since its operation in Ukraine on February 24.
The largest blow, however, would be to Russian energy, which by 2020 made up more than half of Russia’s exports. The U.S. and Britain have already banned Russian oil. Today, the EU — which remains highly dependent on Russia’s supply — is considering a similar move, but is yet to reach consensus on the matter.
Dealing with sanctioned oil risks both reputational and financial damage, but demand for crude could still drive some buyers to the deep ends of black markets, analysts say.
“Commodities markets are already being squeezed due to supply concerns and so it is not clear that Russian supplies can be replaced,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank in London.
