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Russia was staging another show of military might on Saturday in the face of the West continuing to flex its muscles, with President Vladimir Putin overseeing drills involving nuclear-capable missiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was headed to Germany to shore up support among Western allies, despite a significant increase in clashes in the country’s east in which a Ukrainian soldier was killed.
Increased shelling on the frontlines and evacuation of civilians from pro-Russia regions in Ukraine have come together to raise the fear of a major conflict in Europe to its highest amid weeks of U.S.-led tensions.
The Kremlin insists it has no plans to attack its neighbor, which has angered Moscow by seeking long-term membership in NATO and the European Union.
But the United States insists that with some 150,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders, Moscow has already made up its mind.
U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday that he was sure Putin had made the call to invade, regardless of warnings that it would trigger huge Western sanctions.
“As of this moment I’m convinced he’s made the decision,” Biden said in televised remarks at the White House.
Biden claimed the attack could come in the next “week” or “days” and that targets would include the capital Kyiv, “a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”
Russia has announced a series of withdrawals of its forces from near Ukraine in current days, saying they were taking part in regular military exercises and accusing the West of “hysteria” with claims of an invasion plan.
Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders have also criticized alarmist warnings by the U.S. which severely damage the country’s economy, saying they see no reason to believe an invasion is in the making.
Putin has demanded the West take Russian demands for security guarantees seriously, and is now personally overseeing drills involving nuclear-capable missiles.
Moscow is demanding written guarantees that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, and for the U.S.-led military alliance to roll back deployments in eastern Europe to positions from decades ago.
Russia’s defense ministry said Saturday’s “planned exercises” will test launches of ballistic and cruise missiles.
It said the exercises would involve nearly all branches of Russia’s armed forces, including its aerospace and strategic rocket forces, as well the Northern and Black Sea fleets, which have nuclear-armed submarines.
“Putin, most likely, will watch the exercises from the situation centre,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
“Such test launches, of course, are impossible without the head of state. You know about the famous black suitcase and the red button,” Peskov said in reference to nuclear launch codes.
The volatile frontline between Ukraine’s army and separatists in the Moscow-backed breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk has meanwhile seen a “dramatic increase” in ceasefire violations, international monitors from the OSCE said.
Hundreds of artillery and mortar attacks were reported in recent days, in a conflict that has already rumbled on for eight years and claimed the lives of more than 14,000 people.
Ukraine’s armed forces accused the rebels of a huge new wave of attacks on Saturday, saying there had been dozens of exchanges of fire by 7:00 am (0400 GMT), with one soldier dying from shrapnel wounds.
The rebels, who also accused Ukrainian forces of new attacks on Saturday, declared general mobilizations in the two regions.
On Friday they had announced mass evacuations of civilians into Russia, where the governor of the neighboring Rostov region on Saturday declared a state of emergency as several thousand crossed the border.
Moscow and the rebels have accused Kyiv of planning an assault to retake the regions.
Despite the invasion claims by the U.S., Zelensky’s office said he would not change plans to personally attend Saturday’s Munich Security Conference.
The Ukrainian leader would meet with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, his office said.
“Volodymyr Zelensky expects concrete agreements concerning the delivery to our country of additional military and financial support,” his office said, adding that he would return to Kyiv later Saturday.
At the conference, Jens Stoltenberg vowed that Russia would only get a bolstered NATO on its borders if it invaded.
“If the Kremlin’s aim is to have less NATO on its borders, it will only get more NATO,” he vowed.
Western leaders also accused Russia and China of seeking to “replace the existing international rules” with their own order, as
Beijing backed Moscow in the Kremlin’s showdown with the western military alliance.
“For the first time we now see Beijing joining Moscow in calling on NATO to stop admitting new members,” Stoltenberg said.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen had stronger words, accusing Moscow of a “blatant attempt” to rewrite the global order.
Russia and China are seeking to “replace the existing international rules — they prefer the rule of the strongest to the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination,” she told the Munich conference.
Addressing the same forum via video-link a few hours later, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing’s commitment to respecting territorial sovereignty has been “consistent” and that anyone challenging it was “distorting” its position.
But he also questioned whether an eastern expansion of NATO would guarantee lasting peace.
“We believe that the Cold War is long gone — NATO was a product of the Cold War era and now we need to look at the current situation and there needs to be an adaptation of NATO,” he said.
“If there is persistent eastern expansion, will that guarantee peace in Europe? That is a question that our friends in Europe need to consider seriously.”
Wang also stressed that “all parties have the right to raise their concerns, while the reasonable concerns of Russia should also be respected and heeded.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned about the rise of Russia and China.
“It is absolutely clear that we are going into a world that is multi-polar,” he said.
