صراط عشق صراط عشق
Is Vladimir Putin about to invade Ukraine, as the massing Russian troops on its borders suggest? Or is he bluffing, to extort concessions from his neighbour and the West? No one can be sure of Mr Putin’s intentions. Even his own foreign minister seems to be kept guessing. But, if fighting is about to break out, the world needs to understand the stakes.
As tensions over Ukraine reach a fever pitch, experts warn of heavy casualties, thousands of refugees, a fractured country — and an unstable Continent. For Putin, a keen student of history who loves symbolic flourish, 2022, the centenary of the founding of the Soviet Union, would be the perfect time to move against Ukraine. Such a course would remove the possibility that Ukraine could join either the EU or NATO, which Putin regards as a threat to his own hold on power, and re-establish a significant buffer between Russia proper and the Western alliance.
A Russian attack and occupation of the east would trigger a refugee wave to western Ukraine and Europe. Ukrainians are allowed visa-free travel to the EU, making it likely many would travel there to apply for asylum. That would likely lead to more US troops in Europe and the suspension of the West’s agreement with Russia not to establish permanent NATO bases in the Baltics or in Central and Eastern Europe. The US, whose forces would be stretched thin between Europe and Asia, would demand the Europeans take on more responsibility for their security.
Europe’s security environment would have fundamentally changed, likely putting simmering conflicts elsewhere on the Continent, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, back on the front burner. Russia could use its influence there and elsewhere in the Balkans, especially Serbia, to trigger further divisions in Europe.
The West would impose much tougher sanctions on Russia than anything currently in place. Beyond initial steps such as canceling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project and suspending Russia from the international financial payment system known as SWIFT, the U.S. could impose crippling sanctions on Russian banks, making it all but impossible for them to operate internationally.
But Russia, which is a major gas and oil supplier to the West, wouldn’t be the only one feeling pain. Sanctions on the country’s energy sector would likely send global commodity prices higher, something consumers would feel almost immediately at the gas pump and on their heating bills.
While some worry another Russian invasion of Ukraine would vault Europe back to the Cold War, that may only be half right. For much of the Cold War, relations between East and West were stable, governed by an array of arms-control agreements and other treaties. What may lie ahead promises to be much more unpredictable. And unlike during the Cold War, the U.S. has to split its attention between Asia and Europe. Another big concern is that China could use a crisis in Ukraine to try and take Taiwan by force, a step that would thrust the world into an even deeper crisis. World’s definitely going to get a lot darker and worse before it gets better.
Sources: politico, economist
